Risk Dice

No “Gut Instincts.” No “Coin Tosses.”

Studies show that professional guesswork, “gut instincts” and “intuition” are no more effective than a coin-toss. To “evaluate” a settlement offer or go into negotiation without knowing the best and worst alternatives to a settlement agreement relegates you to working blind, chasing the shadows of speculations, and trying to grope your way through an impossible maze of possibilities.

Scientific-based risk assessment is a more informed approach to settlement negotiations. Knowing the probabilistic boundaries of your case is critical in identifying the likely minimum and maximum case outcomes, evaluating settlement offers, and avoiding unsupported speculation and potential malpractice.

Much of the mock panel’s reaction was no surprise; however, there was the unexpected. To be sure, if an unexpected verdict is to be returned by a jury, it is true bliss that the jury is mock! After completion of the exercise and receiving your feedback, I settled the case. The clients are happy to have paid your fee and I am happy to have spent the time. John F. Head, Denver, Colorado